Right now in Ann Arbor, the air is about 54°F, but the model estimates the asphalt under your dog's paws is closer to 54°F — the surface and air have nearly converged because heavy cloud cover is taking some of the edge off the direct sun. That reading puts Ann Arbor in the clear for an ordinary walk. Air temperature alone would have told you none of this — the pavement, not the forecast, is what your dog actually stands on.
Across the 16 hours left today, the pavement in Ann Arbor is projected to top out near 95°F around 3 PM, when the air will be about 74°F — a 22°F gap between the forecast your weather app shows and the surface your dog walks on. The surface is still gaining — up about 25°F over the next three hours — so a walk taken now is cooler than the same walk later this afternoon.
In an average October, Ann Arbor sees highs around 61°F and overnight lows near 46°F. That keeps most of the day walkable, though a rare clear, calm afternoon can still warm exposed pavement more than the mild air suggests. For this month the normals suggest pavement rarely reaches unsafe temperatures here, but the seven-second hand test is still the final word on any given day.
Ann Arbor loses its all-day safe window in 3 months of the year — June through August — and October is not one of them. The year peaks in July at an average high of 82°F against 33°F in January, a 50°F swing that decides how much of the day belongs to your dog.
The nearest place we track is Detroit, about 36 miles away. That is close enough to move together in a heat wave but far enough that a passing cloud bank or a coastal breeze can put real distance between the two readings, so check Ann Arbor's own page rather than assuming.
Whatever the number says, confirm it with your hand: press the back of it flat on the pavement for seven seconds. If you can't hold it there, neither can your dog. Conditions in Ann Arbor are on the gentler side right now, but keep the same habits: water before and after, grass over asphalt, and a close eye on flat-faced breeds, seniors, and puppies, who overheat and burn sooner than a healthy adult dog.