Right now in Amherst, the air is about 63°F, but the model estimates the asphalt under your dog's paws is closer to 95°F — a gap of roughly 32°F, because clear skies are pouring full sun onto every dark surface. That reading puts Amherst in the clear for an ordinary walk. Air temperature alone would have told you none of this — the pavement, not the forecast, is what your dog actually stands on.
Across the 12 hours left today, the pavement in Amherst is projected to top out near 100°F around 2 PM, when the air will be about 65°F — a 35°F gap between the forecast your weather app shows and the surface your dog walks on. The surface is holding roughly flat over the next three hours, so there is no meaningfully cooler hour coming soon — choose shade and grass rather than waiting it out.
In an average October, Amherst sees highs around 61°F and overnight lows near 47°F. That keeps most of the day walkable, though a rare clear, calm afternoon can still warm exposed pavement more than the mild air suggests. For this month the normals suggest pavement rarely reaches unsafe temperatures here, but the seven-second hand test is still the final word on any given day.
Amherst loses its all-day safe window in 3 months of the year — June through August — and October is not one of them. The year peaks in July at an average high of 80°F against 34°F in January, a 46°F swing that decides how much of the day belongs to your dog.
Amherst sits about 7 miles from Buffalo, close enough that the two usually run within a degree or two of each other — if your walk crosses between them, either page answers the question. Street-level conditions still differ more than city-level ones do: a shaded side street and an open parking lot half a block apart can be twenty degrees apart underfoot.
Whatever the number says, confirm it with your hand: press the back of it flat on the pavement for seven seconds. If you can't hold it there, neither can your dog. Conditions in Amherst are on the gentler side right now, but keep the same habits: water before and after, grass over asphalt, and a close eye on flat-faced breeds, seniors, and puppies, who overheat and burn sooner than a healthy adult dog.