Right now in Memphis, the air is about 71°F, but the model estimates the asphalt under your dog's paws is closer to 71°F — the surface and air have nearly converged because the pavement is shedding the day's stored heat after dark. That reading puts Memphis in the clear for an ordinary walk. Air temperature alone would have told you none of this — the pavement, not the forecast, is what your dog actually stands on.
Across the 3 hours left today, the pavement in Memphis is projected to top out near 71°F around 9 PM, barely above the 71°F air temperature at that hour, because there is little sun left to load the surface. The surface is holding roughly flat over the next three hours, so there is no meaningfully cooler hour coming soon — choose shade and grass rather than waiting it out.
In an average October, Memphis sees highs around 74°F and overnight lows near 56°F. Those are forgiving numbers, but don't let them lull you — a sunny, still afternoon can still heat dark asphalt far above the air, especially for low-riding or short-coated dogs. For this month the normals suggest pavement rarely reaches unsafe temperatures here, but the seven-second hand test is still the final word on any given day.
Memphis loses its all-day safe window in 5 months of the year — May through September — and October is not one of them. The year peaks in July at an average high of 90°F against 50°F in January, a 40°F swing that decides how much of the day belongs to your dog.
The nearest city we track is Little Rock, roughly 130 miles from Memphis — far enough that its reading is no substitute for this one. Sun angle, humidity and cloud cover can all differ across that distance, which is why this page models Memphis on its own coordinates.
Whatever the number says, confirm it with your hand: press the back of it flat on the pavement for seven seconds. If you can't hold it there, neither can your dog. Conditions in Memphis are on the gentler side right now, but keep the same habits: water before and after, grass over asphalt, and a close eye on flat-faced breeds, seniors, and puppies, who overheat and burn sooner than a healthy adult dog.