Right now in Waco, the air is about 77°F, but the model estimates the asphalt under your dog's paws is closer to 107°F — a gap of roughly 30°F, because clear skies are pouring full sun onto every dark surface. That reading puts Waco in the clear for an ordinary walk. Air temperature alone would have told you none of this — the pavement, not the forecast, is what your dog actually stands on.
Across the 13 hours left today, the pavement in Waco is projected to top out near 128°F around 2 PM, when the air will be about 84°F — a 44°F gap between the forecast your weather app shows and the surface your dog walks on. Today breaks into 2 separate safe stretches rather than one continuous window, so missing the first does not cost you the day.
In an average October, Waco sees highs around 82°F and overnight lows near 62°F. Even at those moderate highs, a dark surface in direct sun can run 40–60°F hotter than the air, which is enough to tip midday walks into the caution range. For this month the normals suggest pavement rarely reaches unsafe temperatures here, but the seven-second hand test is still the final word on any given day.
Waco loses its all-day safe window in 6 months of the year — April through September — and October is not one of them. The year peaks in August at an average high of 98°F against 60°F in January, a 39°F swing that decides how much of the day belongs to your dog.
The nearest place we track is Killeen, about 45 miles away. That is close enough to move together in a heat wave but far enough that a passing cloud bank or a coastal breeze can put real distance between the two readings, so check Waco's own page rather than assuming.
Whatever the number says, confirm it with your hand: press the back of it flat on the pavement for seven seconds. If you can't hold it there, neither can your dog. Conditions in Waco are on the gentler side right now, but keep the same habits: water before and after, grass over asphalt, and a close eye on flat-faced breeds, seniors, and puppies, who overheat and burn sooner than a healthy adult dog.