Right now in Surprise, the air is about 103°F, but the model estimates the asphalt under your dog's paws is closer to 139°F — a gap of roughly 36°F, because clear skies are pouring full sun onto every dark surface. That reading puts Surprise in the danger range, where pavement can scald paw pads in under a minute. Air temperature alone would have told you none of this — the pavement, not the forecast, is what your dog actually stands on.
Across the 14 hours left today, the pavement in Surprise is projected to top out near 162°F around 1 PM, when the air will be about 111°F — a 51°F gap between the forecast your weather app shows and the surface your dog walks on. The surface is still gaining — up about 23°F over the next three hours — so a walk taken now is cooler than the same walk later this afternoon.
In an average August, Surprise sees highs around 105°F and overnight lows near 84°F. That is genuinely dangerous territory for daytime walks: at those highs, midday asphalt in full sun can push well past 130°F, hot enough to blister a paw pad in seconds. As a seasonal rule of thumb, the safest windows are before about 8:00 AM and after about 7:00 PM.
Surprise loses its all-day safe window in 7 months of the year — April through October — and August is one of them. The year peaks in July at an average high of 107°F against 64°F in January, a 43°F swing that decides how much of the day belongs to your dog.
Surprise sits about 7 miles from Peoria, AZ, close enough that the two usually run within a degree or two of each other — if your walk crosses between them, either page answers the question. Street-level conditions still differ more than city-level ones do: a shaded side street and an open parking lot half a block apart can be twenty degrees apart underfoot.
Whatever the number says, confirm it with your hand: press the back of it flat on the pavement for seven seconds. If you can't hold it there, neither can your dog. On a day reading this warm in Surprise, flat-faced breeds like pugs and bulldogs, plus seniors and young puppies with thinner pads, should sit out the heat entirely — subtract about 10°F from any safe threshold for them. If you must cross hot ground, protective booties or a quick coat of paw wax are the only real barrier between paw pads and the asphalt.